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Prediction for CME (2023-07-06T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-06T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25827/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] This CME is a very faint potential partial halo seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 difference imagery. The potential source of this CME is the filament eruption/double ribbon flare and associated brightening and dimming seen to the SE near AR's 13358 and 13359 starting around 2023-07-06T05:36Z. A post-eruptive arcade is visible between 06:00Z and 07:00Z. Due to the faintness of this event, high speculation is present. No clear arrival detected across all solar wind parameters, but we are checking with LASSOS team.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-09T07:05Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-07-06 15:23
 - Time at C2: 2023-07-06 09:12
 - Radial speed: 532.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S21W07
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 565.60 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-07-09 07:05 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.88 hours)
Lead Time: 57.25 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-07-06T21:50Z
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